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Public Information Statement

Statement as of 2:20 PM CDT on October 23, 2014

To: family of services/fos/subscribers... NOAA weather wire
         service/nwws/subscribers... emergency managers weather
         information network/emwin/subscribers... noaaport
         subscribers... National Weather Service/NWS/partners and
         other users... and NWS employees

From: megan Terry
         service hydrologist
         WFO Springfield Missouri

Subject: adjustment to services provided to the Springfield
         hydrologic service area.

... New probabilistic river outlook available...

Beginning 27 October 2014... the National Weather Service in
Springfield will implement the issuance of non-exceedance
probabilities as part of the current suite of ahps probabilistic
outlooks for the following locations:

   the Little Osage river at Fulton... KS
   the Little Osage river at Horton... MO
   the Marmaton river at Fort Scott... KS
   the Marmaton river near Nevada... MO
   the Gasconade river at Hazelgreen... MO
   the Gasconade river at Jerome... MO
   the Big Piney river at fort Leonard wood(east gate)... MO

The non-exceedance outlooks will indicate the probability of falling
to listed stage levels during the three month long valid time
period. This product is aimed at helping decision makers determine
the long range possibility of low water.

Advanced hydrology prediction service or ahps is the
modernization of hydrology services to improve flood forecasts and
water resources information. Graphical information is available on
the internet at: http://water.Weather.Gov/ (the web address is in
all lower case and once on the web Page you can zoom into your
respective county). To find the non-exeedance probability
graphs... select your river of interest and go to the hydrograph
Page for that river. Scroll to the bottom of the hydrograph Page
and under the additional information tab... select the link titled:
"how low could the river get?"

Information on the internet for these probabilistic ahps sites may
also include:

- graphs showing current and forecast stage heights
- graphs showing chances or probabilities of exceeding certain
stage heights
- graphs showing chances or probabilities of falling to certain
stage inflows
- a map showing the location of the gauges and fema National
flood hazard levels

The National Weather Service welcomes public feedback. If you
have any questions or comments about this change... please contact:

         megan Terry
         service hydrologist
         National Weather Service Springfield MO
         5805 west Highway ee
         Springfield... MO 65802
         E-mail: contact.Sgf@noaa.Gov

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